The Iowa Caucus
Posted by indigomine on January 3, 2008
There has been quite a bit of discussion over the Iowa Caucus taking place tonight regarding winners and losers, and what it will mean to the Presidential Nominations. Personally, since my state has a primary, I am a bit confused as to what will actually occur today, but I have been reading up on the Caucus system. I will attempt to break it down for you, along with the possible implications of tonights “vote”.
Today, in the Iowa Congressional Districts, people will gather with their neighbors, and listen to representatives of the Presidential Candidates (and sometimes, the candidates themselves) campaign for their vote. The people will then cast their vote for who they would like to be their party’s presidential nominee. The caucus does not allow for absentee votes (so, deployed military does not get to vote). The caucus also lasts two hours, so anyone working or sick will likely not be able to cast a vote.
So, what does this mean? The Iowa Caucus is generally considered the kick-off for the Presidential Nomination. Super Tuesday is less than a month away, in which 19 primaries will be held. The Iowa Caucus allows the winning candidate a good amount of momentum going into the New Hampshire Primary, although it does not mean they will win. The Iowa Caucus also impacts fund raising, as someone who finishes 4th or 5th in the Iowa Caucus will likely have a difficult time rallying support.
Generally speaking, a top three finish is what a candidate is looking for. Top three allows the candidate to continue rolling and pick up a head of steam going into New Hampshire.
Right now, the Republican vote looks to be split between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, with either Rudy Giulliani or John McCain probably fighting for a third place spot. Giulliani seems to be focused more on New Hampshire, which could hurt him in Iowa, and Fred Thompson (the candidate I WANT to back) will probably finish 5th. This is of course, all speculation, as in 2004 John Kerry was figured to finish 4th and won the Caucus, and the eventual nomination.
On the Democrats side, Barack Obama is the smart money favorite to win Iowa, however, John Edwards could surprise some people. Clinton will probably finish third, but she is expected to win NH easily, so there is still no clear favorite on the Democrats side of the aisle. However, if John Edwards finishes third, he could likely be faced with a difficult decision, as he is not likely to finish better than third in NH. Should he fare poorly today, don’t be surprised if he is soon backing Clinton, with the hope of a VP bid.
So, I will watch, and hope Fred Thompson somehow pulls out a strong showing today, because, to me, he is the best conservative candidate, and he is someone I could back without any hesitation. If only he campaigned without hesitation…
